A little bit about anything
Archive for January, 2012
Weather It’s Right or Whether It’s Wrong
Jan 29th
Don’t you wish you could do a job and it didn’t matter if you were right or you were wrong? A job where everyone listens to what you have to say every day and a job where, while everyone listens to you, no one trusts you? A job where you get the latest and greatest in computers and software? If this is what you want in a job then you need to be a meteorologist.
Sure, you spend thousands of dollars to get a formal education, but it doesn’t really matter. Even someone without a formal education can make a reasonable guess at what the weather is going to be like tomorrow and be as close or more accurate than those who do it for a living. But I guess the education is what makes people listen to you.
It is a funny profession. It is a profession where there are never any absolutes other than the sun rises and the sun sets. But that is about it. It is a profession where you can get a different answer depending on where you work. It is a profession where you can change you mind every hour. But at least the sun rises and sets (except in places that get 24 hour sun or 24 hour darkness).
Here is what I see. I went to bed at 2:00am last night with the temperature at -26°C and the forecast for today of -18°C for a high and -18°C for a low. I get up at 7:30 and the forecast has now changed to a high of -23°C and a low of -30°C. Well that was on one of the three sites I checked. Another site had a high today of -16°C and a low of -20°C. A third site had a high of -21°C and a low of -25°C.
I got up this morning at 7:30am…5½ hours after I checked the forecast. The first site has now changed today’s forecast to a high of -23°C and a low of -30°C. The second site now has a high of -24°C and a low of -27°C. The third now has a high of -17°C and a low of -20°C.
5½ hours and the forecast changes on not 1, not 2 but all three sites. How is that possible? First I have to ask all three sites could have a different forecast…a forecast that was less than 24 hours away. I understand the forecast for a week or even 3 or 4 days away can be off but less than 24 hours? But 3 different forecasts for the same 24 hour period? I guess on the positive side, they all 3 say that it is currently -25°C with scattered cloud, partially cloudy or a few clouds depending on who’s readings you look at.
100s of thousands of dollars of computer equipment, forecasting software and satellites and this is the best they can do? Here is what I am getting for the Tuesday forecast. Site 1 forecasts cloudy with a high of -23°C and a low of -25°C. Site 2 forecasts sunny with a high of -26°C and a low of -31°C. Site 3 has a forecast of cloudy with a high of -14°C and a low of -24°C. So what do we figure it will be like on Tuesday? A mere 48 hours away? My best, uneducated guess for this is it will be mostly cloudy and be cold. That is as good as any of these guys can do.
Let’s go a bit further out. Next Friday for example. That’s a forecast 5 days from now. Site 1 shows mostly cloudy with a high of -2°C and a low of -14°C. Site 2 shows a mix of sun and cloud with a high of -12°C and a low of -15°C. The site 3 forecast shows mainly cloudy with a high of +2°C and a low of -9°C. That is a high variance of 14°C. There is a big difference between +2 and –12.
Are these guys using the same education? Same satellites? Same modelling software?
I started thinking about this at the end of November and on November 30th I posted this on my Facebook page:
The Weather Network and Environment Canada both have the current temperature listed as -32°C. TWN is forecasting -9°C for tomorrow and Environment Canada is forecasting -2°C. That is a fairly big difference for 2 professionals to be forecasting. If they are doing the same job with the same radar shouldn’t their forecasts be closer? And seriously those temperatures considering what it is today is pie in the sky forecasting. I guess we will see. I really don’t think it will get warmer than -15°C. Let’s see who is closer…2 professionals or a guess from someone who has lived up here for 21 years.
So how do you think this turned out? Here is my post from December 1st:
Lets Review: On Wednesday morning it was -32°C. Environment Canada said it was going to be -2°C and overcast on Thursday afternoon. The Weather Network said it was going to be -9°C with light snow. Martin said it was going to be -15°C and snow like crazy. So today is Thursday and what did we get? We got -12°C and it is snowing like crazy…3 inches so far in the last 4 hours.
I would say that my gut feeling and aches did a better job of forecasting the weather than individuals who get paid good money, have thousands of dollars in equipment and forecasting/weather modeling software and have spent thousands on a formal meteorology degrees. If you listened to me Yellowknifers then you are welcome…if you didn’t then I hope you aren’t out somewhere not expecting this foot of snow tonight.
So, like I said at the beginning, if you want a job where you don’t have to be right and that is fine. A job where a guess is as good as an education. The feeling in your gut and bones can be more accurate than thousands of dollars of equipment, software and an education. A job where people listen to you all the time but don’t trust you. Then meteorology is the job for you.
American Idol = Success?
Jan 22nd
I was driving between schools the other day, Tuesday or Wednesday I think, and was listening to the radio like I usually do when I am in the car. When I am in my own car on the weekend I listen to satellite radio because I just find the local station boring. In my work vehicle I don’t have much choice other than CDs and they don’t always work properly in the extreme cold so CJCD it usually is.
The one thing I like to listen to CJCD for is the local news. It’s always good to find out what is going on in the city. I don’t always get to read the local paper and their online presence is limited unless you are a subscriber so the radio is it.
Anyway, I was driving and the DJ, Janel, happened to be talking about the premiere of American Idol’s new season on Wednesday night. She was talking about how she liked the first shows the best but she really didn’t understand why people kept going on the show. I think her words went something like “no one ever becomes famous for being on the show’. “Other than the first winner Kelly Clarkson that is”.
Well you think that someone in the music industry would know or at least do some fact finding before they start talking about things on air for everyone to hear. It is very easy these days to find out any information you want.
Kelly Clarkson is one of better known of the American Idol winners mostly because she was the first winner. But, she is also successful and continues to crank out music after 9 more seasons of the show. But she isn’t the most successful of the winners and she isn’t the only contestant that has won awards. The fact is that Carrie Underwood is the most successful of the AI alumni. Kelly Clarkson has picked up 2 Grammy Awards, 4 American Music Awards and 12 Billboard Music Awards. That is 18 awards since winning in September, 2002.
Carrie Underwood (season 4) has collected 5 Grammy Awards, 6 American Music Awards and 15 Billboard Music Awards. Her 26 awards since winning in May, 2005 makes her the most successful of the winners. While winning doesn’t guarantee success, it does give one the exposure to at least have a shot at a career. 2 other winners have also collected awards with Fantasia Barrino (season 3) has collected 1 Grammy Award and 3 Billboard Music Awards, and Jordin Sparks (season 6) collecting an American Music Award.
Just being on the show at least gets the exposure to possibly make headway into a tough market to get into. 3 other non-winning alumni have also won awards. Chris Daughtry (4th on season 5) with his band Daughtry has picked up 4 American Music Awards and 6 Billboard Music Awards, Clay Aitken (2nd on season 2) received 1 American Music Award and 3 Billboard Music Awards and Jennifer Hudson (7th on season 4) collected 1 Grammy Award and is the only alumni to get an award not associated with her music as she was awarded and Oscar for Best Supporting Actress.
So, while appearing on Idol doesn’t guarantee success, it does get your foot in the door and sometimes that is all that is needed and often is the hardest part. Once the foot is in the door it is up to the individual and their talent. Those that have it will make it, those that don’t will just disappear. Has anyone heard of Justin Guarini (second place) or Nikki McKibbin (third place) since?
Parking–Part 1
Jan 19th
Any of us who drive a vehicle know what it is like to find a parking spot at the mall or other public place we go. Have you ever gone to West Edmonton Mall on a Saturday afternoon? NO PARKING!! You know how it is. We all start by driving around the lot looking for a close place to the entrance and after 5 or 10 futile minutes decide that a parking stall anywhere is better than driving around.
Then you have those times when you see someone getting in their car so you wait behind them to take their place only for them to be doing who knows what before they actually back out of the stall. Seriously! I am sure some people take their freaking time just to make those waiting for the spot wait longer. Or do some people get in and check their hair and make-up and who knows what else while full cognizant that someone is waiting for the spot?
Still the biggest mystery to me is why people find it necessary to either back into a stall or drive through the stall to the other side. What is the point. Those that back in tend to take 3 or 4 times longer to park their vehicle holding up traffic in the process and then they are too far over one way or the other or too far back into the stall.
Here is a story of something that happened to me in November. I went grocery shopping at the Yellowknife Co-op, where we usually do. The Parking configuration, like most shopping malls is like the picture below:
The parking lot this day was fairly busy and I usually have my favourite area that I like to park. When I arrived spot “A” was open so I pulled in. In spot “B” was a vehicle that had either backed into their spot or pulled straight through from the spot I now occupied. I pulled in as far as I could and was about 6 inches from the rear bumper of the vehicle in “B”. The driver had also either not pulled through far enough or backed in too far as the back end of the vehicle was slightly over the center line into spot “A”. No big deal as I pulled up close and was not hanging out with my back end into the drive lane.
I spent about 45 minutes to an hour inside the store getting the groceries we needed, packing them up, paying and pushing the buggy back out to my Veracruz to load them in. Half way out I pressed the key for the power tailgate and voila, the back opened so I could just start loading when I got to my vehicle.
As I pulled up to the back of my vehicle to start loading I had a guy come up to me and say “It’s about time. I have been waiting for you for 15 minutes” “Excuse me” I said. “I couldn’t load my groceries into my car because you pulled in too close to my back end” was his response. All I could do was look at him with a dumbfounded stare for a few seconds. My response was then “well I guess you shouldn’t have pulled through or backed in”. I then said “you know, you could have gotten in your car and drove it forward 3 or 4 feet instead of waiting”. He shot back “I shouldn’t have to move forward to load my groceries. You should have had the courtesy to leave me enough room or park elsewhere”. All I could do was shake my head why mumbling “Yea right”.
I finished loading my groceries and then deliberately strolled to the cart area to return the buggy before returning to my vehicle, backing up and leaving. Even while I was loading my groceries, the guy stood there waiting for me to move my vehicle instead of getting in his and moving his up slightly.
That incident was 2 months ago and I am still dumbfounded that the guy actually had the nerve to say that to me. I have also taken note at both the Extra Foods and Co-op ever since to note the number of people who back into their stall or pull through the stall.
I have one big question – WHAT IS THE POINT?
2012 Comeback
Jan 7th
I decided in December that I needed to get back to blogging. I wanted to do this because I enjoyed writing when I was doing it regularly. I have vowed to post at least once a week. That is my goal for the year with my blogs.
I think I have interesting things to say but even if others don’t find it interesting, it is a way to track my thoughts at the time. I am not getting any younger you know and we all know that the memory starts to fade as we get older. Well, I am not sure that is really true but it is the excuse everyone uses.
In reality, I think that as long as the mind is being used and tested on a regular basis, there is no need for the memories to start fading. Like the old saying goes…Use It or Lose It!! Blogging is one of those ways to “keep using it”.
Exercising your brain on a regular basis is as important as exercising the rest of your body. An old Chinese Proverb states “The palest ink is better than the best memory.” Is this true or does it have to be? I am not sure, but one thing I know is that I use my brain every day and so far so good.
There are several things we can do to exercise our brains and help keep ourselves sharp.
-
Physical exercise helps to keep our mind sharp. Walking and running are good ways to think. Many people do their best thinking when they are out for a walk or run. Strength exercises are also good for thinking. The concentration required to correctly do resistance exercises makes the brain work to remember correct form. If you are not thinking of that correct form it is a good possibility you will injure yourself from that incorrect form.
-
Hobbies are a good way to exercise the brain. Whether you are writing, sewing, building models, reading, building things, taking pictures, drawing/painting pictures etc., you are using your mind. Find a hobby and do it regularly and it will not only reduce stress in your life, your brain will benefit.
-
You are never too old to learn. I know it is an old saying but it is true. Try to learn something new every day. Whether you are learning a new language or updating your education. Whether you are learning something on the job or just reading something you didn’t know before. Just make a vow to learn something new and keep learning new things.
-
Treat others as you would expect them to treat you. Equally important is to treat yourself as you would expect others to treat you. Your mind will be sharper, you will be happier and your attitude will improve because of the reduced stress. This is also contagious and would be a benefit to everyone.
-
Do the little things with your mind. If you need to do some basic math, try using your brain rather than using a calculator. Whether you do it in your head or with a pencil and paper, the thought process of doing it by yourself will strengthen your memory. When was the last time you did basic math functions by yourself? This is one thing I do all the time.
-
Learn from everything you do. If you are driving somewhere, think of the best route to travel. Map it out in your mind. Cutting the lawn? What is the most efficient path to follow to do it the quickest way? Typing something? Try doing it without automatic spell check enabled. Double check your work manually first. Can’t remember or don’t know how to spell a word? Look it up in a dictionary (online or physical) and learn how to spell the word and learn the meaning of the word. If you are writing something by hand (I know, who does that anymore?) then concentrate on making it as neat as possible. The little things we do help to strengthen the brain and as a result the memory.
We all want to be healthy. Being healthy means we can live a happy life. Since everything runs through the brain, it’s a good thing to make sure that the brain is exercised and kept healthy.
Related articles
